(With apologies to Jon Stewart who did a similar pie chart last night, but Fun With Excel Graphs™ is one of my recurring themes…)
(NY Times) WASHINGTON, July 20 – About half of Iraq’s new police battalions are still being established and cannot conduct operations, while the other half of the police units and two-thirds of the new army battalions are only “partially capable” of carrying out counterinsurgency missions, and only with American help, according to a newly declassified Pentagon assessment.
Only “a small number” of Iraqi security forces are capable of fighting the insurgency without American assistance, while about one-third of the army is capable of “planning, executing and sustaining counterinsurgency operations” with allied support, the analysis said.
Level 1 units are able to plan, execute and sustain independent counterinsurgency operations. By late last month, American commanders said, only 3 of the 107 military and paramilitary battalions had achieved that standard. At the lower end, Level 4 units are just forming and cannot conduct operations. Units graded at levels in between need some form of allied support, often supplies, communications and intelligence.
Two years after “Mission Accomplished” and all we have are only 3 of 107 ready to fight the insurgency? Remember that Bush told us that we wouldn’t leave until the Iraqis could stand on their own two feet and defend themselves without our help.
So by that standard, let’s play another fun round of Fun With Excel Graphs™. Suppose that the current rate of promotion of Iraqi forces to “Level 1” remains steady. When will we be out of Iraq? And just to compare what that will cost us, assume the rate of American casualties remains steady as well: 
Hmm, looks like we’d be leaving Iraq somewhere around 2075 with over 62,000 casualties. That doesn’t sound right at all. For one thing, as the Iraqi battalions come online, they’ll be able to help train other Iraqis. Also, as more Iraqis serve, less Americans will be in Iraq and therefore, less will die.
so let’s adjust our assumptions a bit. Suppose every two years we can train 50% more Iraqis than the previous year. Also assume that every two years the newly-trained Iraqis lead to a 10% decrease in the rate of American casualties:
OK, now it looks like our total time and expenditure to remold Iraq as the beacon of democracy for the Middle East will only cost us twenty years and 11,500 lives. Is that too high a price for freedom?
